Population Forecast with Focus on Emigration: Scenarios for the Case of Peripheral Region

Authors

  • Aleksejs Homutiņins 1Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Daugavpils University, Latvia
  • Viktorija Šipilova The Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Daugavpils University, Latvia; Corresponding Author
  • Ludmila Aleksejeva Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Daugavpils University, Latvia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n3p139

Keywords:

population forecast, scenarios, emigration, peripheral region, regional development, system dynamics

Abstract

Sustainable decision-making and policies for regional development need clear understanding of future trends in population change. Emigration as one of the core factors of population change causes the greatest uncertainty in the demographic forecasts. Population change due to emigration is bright especially in peripheral regions what strengthens their unfavourable socio-economic conditions. Within the present study, the authors forecast population change due to emigration in peripheral region with high emigration rates. The authors offer three scenarios – current, half of current, and zero emigration, which demonstrate how differentiated population change due to emigration may be in case of different suppositions. Such approach focuses on the issue at local level. For numerical expression of population change, the authors apply simulation model based on system dynamics methods. Forecast results of future population change due to emigration in each scenario may be as a basis for timely inclusion of issues in regional development policies. 

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Published

2021-10-01

How to Cite

Homutiņins, A. ., Šipilova, V. ., & Aleksejeva, L. . (2021). Population Forecast with Focus on Emigration: Scenarios for the Case of Peripheral Region. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 10(3), 139. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n3p139

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Articles